Robinhood Moves Into Futures, Prediction Markets With New Acquisition
Robinhood is pushing further into the prediction-market arena through a new partnership with Susquehanna International Group, marking one of its most ambitious ventures yet in derivatives and event-based trading. The two firms plan to launch a fully regulated U.S. futures and derivatives exchange—along with its own clearinghouse—by acquiring MIAXdx, a CFTC-licensed platform owned by Miami International Holdings. The deal places Robinhood at the centre of the operation, granting it majority control, while MIAX will retain a 10 per cent stake. Susquehanna, known for its deep market-making expertise, will provide the initial liquidity needed to support trading from day one. The exchange is expected to go live in 2026.
The expansion reflects Robinhood’s growing interest in meeting user demand for markets tied to real-world outcomes. JB Mackenzie, the firm’s VP and General Manager of Futures and International, noted that customer interest in prediction-style trading has accelerated, pushing the company to invest heavily in infrastructure that can support more advanced products. He said the joint venture will allow Robinhood to deliver a smoother trading experience and broaden the types of instruments available to retail investors.
Prediction markets have been gaining traction across both traditional finance and crypto, offering traders a way to speculate on everything from political elections and sports outcomes to economic data releases. In the crypto ecosystem, platforms such as Polymarket have helped popularise this form of event-based speculation, with users placing bets through blockchain-based contracts. The model has grown so rapidly that regulated financial institutions are now looking to build their own compliant alternatives.
Robinhood has already been moving in that direction. Earlier this year, it partnered with Kalshi, one of the most prominent CFTC-regulated event-contract platforms, to bring politics, economic indicators, and major sports markets into Robinhood Derivatives. That collaboration expanded further in August with the introduction of NFL and NCAA football prediction contracts, signalling the company’s long-term commitment to this category.
The planned launch of a CFTC-licensed exchange places Robinhood directly in the path of emerging competition. Coinbase is developing its own prediction-market product through its derivatives division, while Gemini is awaiting CFTC approval for its Gemini Titan platform. At the same time, decentralised markets—particularly Polymarket—continue to attract crypto-native traders with fast settlement speeds, flexible markets, and lower barriers to entry.
The growing overlap between traditional derivatives and on-chain prediction trading suggests that the next phase of competition will centre on which platforms can combine regulatory clarity with broad market choice. Robinhood’s entrance into the exchange space, backed by Susquehanna’s liquidity and MIAX’s existing infrastructure, could significantly shift the balance by bringing event-based trading further into the mainstream. As regulatory and decentralised models continue to evolve, traders are likely to benefit from a more diverse and accessible prediction-market landscape.
