Oil Prices Rise Amid Market Optimism, OPEC+ Speculation

Global oil markets experienced upward momentum on Tuesday as traders evaluated positive demand signals while maintaining caution ahead of upcoming OPEC+ policy decisions regarding August production levels.

Brent crude gained 35 cents (0.5%) to reach $67.09 per barrel Tuesday afternoon while WTI crude climbed 44 cents (approximately 0.7%) to $65.55 per barrel, according to Reuters.

Market analyst Randall Rothenberg from Liquidity Energy attributed the gains to encouraging Chinese manufacturing data, which indicated factory activity expansion in June. Additional support came from expectations that Saudi Arabia would increase August crude pricing for Asian buyers to four-month highs, alongside firm premiums for Russian ESPO Blend crude.

However, anticipated OPEC+ production increases limited price gains. Four sources indicated the group plans to boost output by 411,000 barrels daily when meeting on July 6, following similar increases in recent months.

“All eyes will be on OPEC+’s decision over the weekend, when the group is expected to add another 411,000 bpd of production in an effort to gain more market share, primarily over the U.S. shale producers,” StoneX energy analyst Alex Hodes told clients.

The strategy aims to capture market share from U.S. shale producers, who achieved record production in April, according to official data. OPEC+ also seeks to address overproduction by certain members, with Kazakhstan recently matching production highs.

Saudi Arabia increased June crude exports to their fastest annual pace, according to Kpler data. “These exports are flooding out even faster than the OPEC+ deal implies during the summer, when peak domestic demand typically keeps oil supplies closer to home,” Hodes said.

Trade negotiations ahead of President Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline added another layer of market uncertainty. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of potential sharp tariff increases despite ongoing negotiations, while EU officials seek immediate sectoral relief.

Morgan Stanley forecasts Brent futures declining to approximately $60 per barrel by early next year, citing adequate supply and reduced geopolitical tensions. The bank projects a 1.3 million barrel daily oversupply in 2026.