Nigeria’s fragile opposition coalition is facing one of its most defining stress tests yet, as moves for the possible exit of former presidential candidates, Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, threaten to unravel months of political realignment ahead of the 2027 general elections.
What began as an unlikely but strategic convergence of opposition heavyweights – former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Obi of the Labour Party, and Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) – under the platform of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), is now edging toward fragmentation under the weight of internal disputes, legal uncertainty, and competing presidential ambitions.
The coalition had initially been projected as a formidable counterweight to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), especially after its leadership structure was anchored by prominent figures such as former Senate President David Mark, who emerged as interim National Chairman, and former Interior Minister Rauf Aregbesola as National Secretary.
Their emergence was widely interpreted as a stabilising move intended to give the coalition institutional direction and national spread.
However, that early optimism has steadily eroded. Almost immediately after the coalition settled into the ADC, a leadership tussle erupted, with a faction led by Nafiu Bala Gombe contesting the legitimacy of the Mark-led National Working Committee (NWC).
The dispute quickly escalated into a series of legal battles that have since created parallel claims to authority within the party.
Conflicting court pronouncements have compounded the crisis. While an earlier ruling forced the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to delist the ADC leadership under Mark, the Supreme Court later remitted key aspects of the dispute back to the High Court for determination.
INEC has in the main relisted their names on its website citing court judgement.
However, the effect has been uncertainty, raising concerns about the ADC’s ability to meet critical electoral deadlines, including the submission of party registers and the conduct of valid primaries as required under the Electoral Act.
For a coalition built largely on urgency and electoral arithmetic, time is now its most scarce resource.
Against this backdrop, the conspicuous absence of Obi and Kwankwaso from crucial party engagements soon after the apex court judgement has amplified suspicion.
Both men were missing on the day the Supreme Court delivered its judgment and were also absent at a high-level stakeholders’ meeting convened shortly after by Atiku and other coalition leaders.
Fueling the speculation further that all is not well in the ADC is the growing visibility of the ‘OK Movement’, a political pressure group campaigning for an Obi-Kwankwaso presidential ticket.
The group has reportedly intensified consultations, grassroots engagements, and strategy sessions, widely interpreted as preparations for a potential political shift outside the ADC framework.
Statements from within Kwankwaso’s political base have only deepened the intrigue. The Kwankwasiyya Movement over the weekend claimed that both leaders had already engaged with alternative platforms, including the National Democratic Congress (NDC), and were on the verge of formalising their next move.
“We don’t want a repeat of what happened in the ADC,” the group said, adding, “All is now set. Both Obi and Kwankwaso will announce their defection from the ADC on Monday.”
Buba Galadima, a long-time associate of Kwankwaso, reinforced the sense of imminent realignment, hinting that a decisive announcement on their political direction was imminent and would significantly alter the opposition landscape.
Yet, in a carefully worded response, Kwankwaso stopped short of confirming an exit. He described reports of a finalized decision as “misleading,” while pointedly leaving the door open.
“No final decision has been taken regarding my political future or that of my political associates,” he said, underscoring that consultations were ongoing.
Even so, his explanation laid bare the depth of the coalition’s troubles. Kwankwaso cited the Supreme Court’s decision to remit the leadership dispute back to the High Court, alongside a Federal High Court ruling that questioned the legitimacy of the party’s convention, as factors that have placed the ADC in a “precarious position.”
He also referenced reports of moves by the Attorney General of the Federation to seek the deregistration of the ADC – an extraordinary development that, if pursued, could fundamentally alter the party’s legal standing and viability as an electoral platform.
“We have commenced wide-ranging consultations with leaders across political platforms, including the NDC and PRP, to explore the best options for protecting our democratic interests,” Kwankwaso added, signalling that contingency planning is already underway.
He attributed his absence from recent ADC meetings to prior commitments, stating that he had duly communicated with party leadership.
Within the ADC, however, there are efforts to project stability. Former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Amaechi, has taken a firm position in favour of remaining within the party, pledging to abide by the outcome of its presidential primaries regardless of who emerges.
While also criticising what he described as excesses among some supporters of Peter Obi, Amaechi called for restraint and unity, urging party members to focus on the broader objective of building a credible alternative to the APC.
The party’s official response has been equally measured but defiant. In a statement signed by its National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, the ADC dismissed the swirling defection rumours as distractions.
“The ADC will present credible, competent, and nationally acceptable candidates in the 2027 general elections,” the statement read. “We are not distracted by noise. We are focused on organising across the country and building the structures required not just to contest, but to win.”
The party further insisted that it remains the most viable opposition platform, capable of channeling widespread public dissatisfaction over insecurity, economic hardship, and governance challenges into electoral success.
Despite these assurances, supporters of Obi and Kwankwaso would have none of these, warning that the coalition’s internal contradictions may prove difficult to reconcile.
Both Obi and Kwankwaso command significant regional and grassroots followings – Obi with a strong base among urban and youth voters, and Kwankwaso with a loyal political machinery in Kano and parts of the North-West. Their supporters believe whatever political platform they conduct their presidential ambition would be positive.
However, Obi has maintained relative silence, while his supporters continue to beat the drum of defection just a few months after he joined the ADC.
IIn all, the lack of clarity in what’s a fluid situation even as competing presidential ambition among the aspirants, is already shaping the 2027 election in one direction – in favour of the ruling party, the APC.
