Oil Prices Steady as Middle East Tensions Ease, Demand Uncertainty Lingers
Global oil prices remained largely unchanged on Monday, as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing uncertainty over global energy demand influenced market sentiment.
Brent crude hovered around $67.76 per barrel at 09:18 GMT as the August contract approached expiration. The September futures rose by 17 cents to $66.97 per barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude edged up 9 cents to $65.61 per barrel.
Both Brent and WTI posted their steepest weekly losses since March 2023 but remain on track for a second consecutive month of gains exceeding 5%.
Oil markets surged above $80 per barrel earlier in June after Israel launched strikes on Iranian nuclear sites on June 13, triggering a 12-day conflict. However, prices later corrected as hostilities de-escalated.
According to UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo, the market has returned to a range-bound phase, with further direction likely to depend on macroeconomic data or new supply disruptions.
Sources within OPEC+ told Reuters that the group plans to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, mirroring the increases seen over the previous three months.
Tamas Varga of PVM Associates cautioned that the additional supply could lead to a buildup in global oil inventories, potentially limiting further price increases.
The group is scheduled to reconvene on July 6 to finalise production decisions.
Despite the planned output increase, supply tightness persists due to less-than-expected production gains and stable export levels from OPEC+ members, Staunovo noted.
A Reuters survey revealed that while overall OPEC output rose in May, the gains were modest. Countries that had previously exceeded their quotas made cuts, while heavyweight producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE increased output, but remained below their permitted limits.
Concerns over slower global oil demand—particularly from China—continue to weigh on prices.
Priyanka Sachdeva, senior analyst at Phillip Nova, observed that uncertainty surrounding global economic growth remains a limiting factor for oil market recovery.
