Nigeria, Others, Not Immuned To Coup D’etat
The recent political upheaval in Guinea-Bissau over a disputed election, where clashes between the ruling and opposition parties exposed deep cracks over lack of democracy leading to a coup, is another reminder that Africa’s cycle of coups is far from over.
Instead of fading, military interventions are returning with troubling frequency – and the underlying triggers – abuse of democracy – remain largely unresolved.
At this rate, even Nigeria, long viewed as a regional stabiliser, may not escape the growing domino effect spreading across the continent. The ruling party’s increased assault on democratic principles with little scant for dissent or public opinion is a recipe for the Guinea Bissau experience.
Africa has been here before. Shortly after independence, many countries experienced political breakdowns as rival elites struggled for power in fragile new states. The power grab phenomenon among the political players threw the continent into military rulership.
Then, economic mismanagement, pervasive corruption, ethnic tensions and weak institutions created fertile ground for soldiers to step in. Decades later, those same conditions still drive coups from West to East Africa.
In West Africa, countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali, Guinea, Niger and Guinea-Bissau have recently witnessed successful or attempted coups justified by the military as responses to insecurity, disputed elections and government failures.
The 2021 coup in Guinea was triggered by President Alpha Condé’s controversial bid for a third term, while the 2025 coup has been blamed on President Umaro Sissoco Embaló’s defeat in an election the opposition claimed victory and said Embaló staged the coup by inviting the military led by his close ally, Gen. Horta Inta-a to seize power in “proxy” leadership.
Meanwhile, Niger’s 2023 power takeover was fuelled by citizen frustration over worsening insecurity and perception of elite corruption.
Even Senegal, long considered a stable democracy, recently experienced civil unrest over attempts to manipulate election timelines.
Central Africa remains one of the most coup-prone regions, with dramatic examples such as Gabon’s 2023 overthrow of President Ali Bongo after contested election results, and the Central African Republic’s long history of rebellion.
East Africa has not been spared either. Sudan’s 2021 coup plunged the country back into military rule, while Comoros has seen more than 20 coup attempts since independence.
These cases demonstrate how weak institutions and leadership struggles continue to undermine stability.
In North Africa, military interventions have often emerged from ideological contestation or mass uprisings. Egypt’s 2013 ouster of President Mohamed Morsi followed nationwide protests, while Libya’s collapse after Mamman Gaddafi’s fall turned the country into a battleground for rival armed groups.
Tunisia, once hailed as the Arab Spring’s success story, now faces democratic backsliding and growing authoritarianism – conditions ripe for future instability.
Southern Africa has also seen its share of interventions, including repeated coups in Lesotho and attempted plots in countries like Angola, Mozambique and South Africa. Although some incidents were thwarted, they show that no region is fully insulated.
What makes today’s wave particularly concerning is the additional pressure created by bad elections. The “win-at-all-costs” mentality fuels violence, vote rigging and loss of public trust.
When citizens no longer believe the ballot can change anything, they begin to see the military as an alternative. This sentiment is now openly expressed across several African countries, including Nigeria.
The spread of social media has intensified this distrust. Citizens now document electoral fraud, police brutality and governance failures in real time, amplifying anger and deepening divisions.
In many places, political leaders respond not with reforms but with repression – like the EndSARS protests in 2020 in Nigeria – further eroding democratic legitimacy.
Indeed, Nigeria’s political climate reflects several of these warning signs. Since 2023, the ruling party has consolidated control across most states through defections and political pressure, creating the perception of a creeping one-party system.
Many citizens believe elections are increasingly predetermined, especially with the widely disputed 2023 presidential result that was announced at night despite objections from observers and civil society groups.
The now-familiar phrase “go to court” has become a symbol of public frustration, as judicial processes are viewed as biased or inaccessible.
This erosion of trust is dangerous. When people believe their votes no longer matter, they may begin to rationalise undemocratic alternatives. The recent rumours surrounding the cancelled June 12 celebrations and the arrests linked to alleged coup plots only fuel this anxiety.
Since 1999, Nigeria has never had this level of public discourse openly discussing military intervention as a possibility.
Africa’s coups do not happen in isolation; they emerge from systemic failures that leaders refuse to fix. Today, with worsening economic hardship, growing insecurity, weak institutions, shrinking civic space and deteriorating electoral credibility, the continent is drifting back into conditions that once made coups commonplace.
Unless governments commit to genuine democratic reforms, credible elections, economic stability and accountable leadership, the wave of coups sweeping Africa will not only continue – it may soon reach countries that once considered themselves safe, including Nigeria.
—Mark is an Abuja-based journalist.
Nigeria, Others, Not Immuned To Coup D’etat is first published on The Whistler Newspaper
