The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has projected that Nigeria’s real GDP growth could rise to 5.5 per cent in 2025, driven by the implementation of robust stabilization measures aimed at tackling sectoral constraints and structural challenges. This was disclosed in the NESG’s Macroeconomic Outlook for 2025, obtained by THE WHISTLER.
According to the NESG, stabilization reforms are expected to foster broad-based growth across key economic sectors, marking a departure from 2024, when only four out of twenty major sectors achieved growth rates exceeding five per cent. These reforms will address deep-rooted issues across industries, creating opportunities for expanded economic activities and enhanced productivity.
The NESG predicted that inflationary pressures will ease in 2025, supported by improvements in food production, exchange rate stability, and lower energy costs. It noted that these factors would collectively reduce price levels, enhance household purchasing power, and boost the competitiveness of businesses.
The group also highlighted the likelihood of stable interest rates, with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) adopting a more accommodative monetary policy stance.
A potential reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) is expected to complement fiscal policies and support economic growth.
Further, the NESG forecasted that inflation could decline to 24.7 per cent under an optimal stabilization scenario.
This improvement, it explained, would be the result of coordinated fiscal and monetary policies alongside measures to stabilize the foreign exchange market.
The NESG noted that an increase in forex supply and reduced speculative demand would ensure exchange rate stability, which is critical to curbing inflation.
Agriculture is expected to be a key driver of inflation reduction, with the NESG emphasizing that improved agricultural productivity will boost food supply, address scarcity, and stabilize food prices. Enhanced security in food-producing regions will facilitate better access to farmlands and supply chains, further alleviating food price pressures, which have been a significant contributor to inflation in recent years.
The NESG also pointed to energy stability as a critical factor in reducing inflation. Reliable electricity supply and steady fuel availability will minimize disruptions to production and lower operational costs for businesses.
