UK Conservative Party leader, Kemi Badenoch, is facing growing pressure as a new YouGov poll shows the party has plunged to its lowest-ever rating, slipping to fourth place for the first time since 2019.
The poll, conducted on May 18–19 with 2,222 adults, puts the Conservatives at just 16%, behind Reform UK on 29%, Labour on 22%, and the Liberal Democrats on 17%.
This marks a historic low for the party and a symbol of its declining popularity amid internal divisions and an increasing popularity of the Reform UK party.
The last time the Conservatives came fourth in a YouGov poll was in June 2019, during the Brexit deadlock that led to Theresa May’s resignation. That poll also saw Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party in the lead, similar to current trends as Reform UK, now led by Farage again, capitalises on voter discontent, particularly over immigration.
The new figures follow a disastrous local election performance, in which the Conservatives lost every council they were defending and over 670 councillors, while Reform UK took control of 10 county councils and topped the national vote share.
The Independent revealed in the wake of the results that Conservative lawmakers were meeting to discuss how to remove their leader, with panic growing over the future of the party.
“We cannot continue as we are and she [Ms Badenoch] is just not up to the task,” one of the lawmakers said.
According to The Telegraph, critics within the Conservative ranks say Badenoch, who took over after Rishi Sunak’s resignation, has failed to provide a clear roadmap or challenge Reform’s growing appeal.
They accuse her of avoiding detailed policy commitments and limiting public appearances, leaving Farage to dominate the political conversation.
Pollster Luke Tryl said Britain’s political landscape has been shaken, with “lots in the pool that would have once seemed mind-blowing.”
He warned that the Conservatives risk “going the way of the Republicans in France,” following a sharp drop in their support. Tryl said the party “needs a strategy out of it” to recover.
Meanwhile, polling expert Lord Hayward, a Conservative, said the YouGov survey “highlights the task the party faces when confronted by a populist with no record of government.”
According to Electoral Calculus, if the poll results were repeated in a general election, the Conservatives would be reduced to just 17 seats, while Reform would win a majority with 346 seats.
Immigration has emerged as a key issue driving Reform’s rise. In the same YouGov poll, 50% of respondents named immigration and asylum as one of the UK’s top concerns, affecting the economy and marking the highest level of concern since the lead-up to the 2016 Brexit referendum.
Reform has pledged to implement a “one in, one out” immigration policy, proposing a freeze on all non-essential immigration.
Though Badenoch acknowledged the Conservative Party “got it wrong” on immigration and promised to reduce numbers through an annual visa cap, she has yet to provide concrete details.
The Conservatives’ collapse in support reflects a long-term decline. From a high of 53% during the COVID-19 pandemic in April 2020, the party has gradually declined through scandals like Partygate, economic turbulence during Liz Truss’s leadership, and ongoing internal rifts.
Under Sunak, the party briefly rebounded but soon fell back, polling at 18% in early May before the general election was called.
As the party faces an uncertain future, Badenoch has called for patience, insisting she needs time to rebuild trust.
However, with Reform now outpacing Labour and the Conservatives in some polls, pressure is mounting for immediate action and clarity of direction.
