Experts Warn of Looming Surge in Power Outages Across Nigeria

Nigeria faces the prospect of increasingly frequent power outages as electrical grid failures are anticipated to become more common in the upcoming months, according to industry experts from the Association of Power Generation Companies.

In an interview with BusinessDay, Joy Ogaji, the Association’s chief executive officer, indicated that recurring grid disruptions across Nigeria signal fundamental structural problems within the nation’s electricity infrastructure, with these collapses serving as warning signs of deeper issues.

Following last week’s grid shutdown, the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) attributed the failure to a power generation company experiencing technical difficulties.

According to the operator’s explanation, when one GenCo experienced problems, it caused substantial load reduction that spread throughout the system, affecting other generation companies and creating widespread disturbances.

During her discussion with BusinessDay, Ogaji elaborated on the underlying causes: “the recent grid disturbance is a symptom of a much deeper malaise. The tripping of a GenCo is often the proximate cause, but the root cause is the crippling liquidity crisis fuelled by government debt.

“This debt undermines every aspect of a GenCo’s operation, from daily gas purchases to long-term maintenance, making the entire grid less stable and reliable. Addressing this debt is not just about settling past obligations; it is a critical step towards securing the future stability of Nigeria’s electricity supply.

“If the debt remains unpaid and the structural issues are not resolved, the situation could deteriorate further to more frequent grid collapses, prolonged widespread blackouts, total operational shutdown of GenCos,” she said.

Ogaji detailed how outstanding debts to generation companies, including N4 trillion owed by NBET in 2024 and N762 billion accumulated from January through April 2025, according to NERC records, continue to compromise operational capabilities across all areas of GenCo activities, from routine gas procurement to essential maintenance programs, ultimately reducing grid stability and dependability.

The Association’s leader outlined how generation companies confront severe cash flow challenges that prevent them from meeting operational expenses and delay necessary maintenance work. When companies cannot cover basic operational costs, maintenance activities are postponed.

“Without sufficient funds, GenCos cannot perform routine or major maintenance on turbines and other critical equipment. This makes the plants less reliable and more prone to sudden faults and trips, especially when being ramped up to meet grid demand.

“GenCos face difficulty in servicing their debt and equity in procuring these assets. Operations and maintenance are affected, and new investments are hampered; a good example is the NIPP, which attracted very little attention due to the hurdles in the sector.

“Instances abound where GenCos have had to resort to other means other than the electricity market to support the gas and other services just to put power on the national grid,” she said.

Ogaji highlighted the absence of comprehensive grid monitoring capabilities due to the lack of automated systems that would provide visibility into grid operations for stakeholders.

Beyond the operational disruptions affecting critical facilities like hospitals, airports, and rail stations during grid failures, she noted that generation companies also bear financial costs from grid instability through revenue losses during frequent equipment cycling, gas wastage, and elevated maintenance expenses, creating significant risks for Legacy GenCos, NIPP facilities, and independent power producers.

“As generating companies, we want transparency, accountability and fairness in the governance structure which must be fair and non-discriminatory, and must be independent of any one market participant or class of participants.

“The rules of governance must prevent control, or the appearance of control, of decision-making by any class of participants.”