Trader gambles $45M on Trump’s 2024 election win
A French trader has made waves in the U.S. election betting scene by placing over $45 million on Donald Trump to win the 2024 presidential race.
This wager, made through the popular prediction platform Polymarket, has drawn significant attention, not only for its size but also for the implications it raises about foreign influence in election-related betting.
According to Bloomberg, the bettor is an experienced trader with a financial services background and has spread investments across four major accounts.
The largest account, operating under the username “Fredi9999,” is reported to have made substantial bets favouring Trump’s victory on November 5.
This high-stakes move has led to questions about the trader’s motives and how such large-scale bets might affect public opinion on election outcomes.
Polymarket, which specializes in prediction markets, confirmed that the individual behind these accounts is not an American citizen.
This revelation has further fueled speculation about international players influencing U.S. betting.
While some had suggested that prominent Americans might be behind the bets, Polymarket clarified that the accounts are owned by a non-American trader.
As of Thursday, Polymarket’s market showed Trump with a 61.1% chance of winning, higher than similar prediction platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt, which placed Trump’s chances at 58% and 57%, respectively.
Critics argue that the massive bet may artificially inflate Trump’s odds, raising concerns about the potential for market manipulation.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has expressed concerns about election betting in general, with Chairman Rostin Behnam warning that such activities could undermine trust in democratic processes.
Polymarket, although facing restrictions in the U.S. due to a 2022 settlement with the CFTC, remains a major platform for election predictions, handling nearly $2.4 billion in trades.
