North America, Africa Record Highest Trade Gains In Q1 – WTO

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has reported a stronger-than-expected increase in global merchandise trade volumes in the first quarter of 2025, driven largely by significant growth in imports across North America and Africa.

North America recorded the sharpest quarter-on-quarter growth at 13.4 per cent, while Africa followed with a 5.1 per cent rise, outpacing other regions and contributing to a global trade volume increase of 3.6 per cent for the period.

The latest figures, published in the WTO’s quarterly trade report released Tuesday, showed that year-on-year global merchandise trade expanded by 5.3 per cent, defying earlier forecasts of a slowdown.

The stronger-than-expected performance was attributed to a surge in U.S. imports ahead of widely anticipated tariff hikes and a flurry of trade-related activity in African markets.

“Merchandise trade volume growth in the first quarter was stronger than the WTO’s most recent forecast,” the report said. “However, WTO economists expect the pace of expansion to slow later in the year as fully stocked inventories and higher tariffs weigh on import demand.”

In April, the WTO had predicted that global goods trade would contract by 0.2 per cent in 2025, citing potential spillover effects from new U.S. tariffs and global trade tensions.

However, Tuesday’s updated projection revised that figure upward, forecasting flat annual growth of 0.1 per cent—a marginal but notable improvement from the previous pessimistic outlook.

According to the report, importers in the United States rushed to bring in goods before newly announced tariffs take effect later in the year, resulting in a temporary spike in trade flows.

The U.S. import surge was complemented by growth in other regions, though at a more moderate pace. South and Central America and the Caribbean posted 3.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter growth, followed by the Middle East at 3.0 per cent, Europe at 1.3 per cent, and Asia at 1.1 per cent.

In terms of product categories, the value of global trade in office and telecom equipment grew by 16 per cent year-on-year, reflecting high demand for technology and digital infrastructure.

Chemicals rose by 12 per cent, and clothing by seven per cent. However, the report also recorded declines in automotive products (down 4 per cent), fuels and mining products, and iron and steel (each down 3 per cent), indicating uneven performance across sectors.

The WTO noted that a mix of factors, including forward-buying to avoid tariffs, recently concluded trade agreements, and temporary logistical advantages, contributed to the Q1 boost.

Nonetheless, the organization cautioned that these gains may be short-lived, especially as geopolitical uncertainties and inflation-related pressures continue to weigh on global trade sentiment.

“The next quarters will likely reflect the impact of delayed tariffs and potential shifts in inventory cycles, which may restrain import momentum,” WTO economists warned.

With North America and Africa now emerging as key contributors to global trade momentum, analysts are closely watching for signs of sustained recovery or retraction, particularly in light of ongoing policy shifts in major economies.

Africa’s 5.1 per cent growth marks one of its strongest performances in recent years, suggesting improving regional trade capacity and demand resilience despite broader global uncertainties.

North America, Africa Record Highest Trade Gains In Q1 – WTO is first published on The Whistler Newspaper