2027: Why Tinubu May Not Run With Shettima

…. Likely Replacement

President Bola Tinubu is leaving no one in doubt about his intention to seek re-election in 2027. But the president is leaving everyone in doubt as to the probability of running with his deputy, Vice President Kashim Shettima. The signs are quite ominous. They are unmistakable. Signals from the national leadership of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) foretell a political accident on the road to 2027. Respite isn’t coming from Shettima’s APC Northeastern zone either.

Political event watchers did not miss the message passed to the vice president during the APC national summit on May 22. The event took place in the Banquet Hall of the presidential villa. It was designed primarily to endorse Tinubu’s re-election. Every other item on the agenda was meant to complement that objective. All the party’s governors endorsed the president for 2027. The Abdullahi Ganduje-led National Working Committee (NWC) echoed it. The APC leadership in the two chambers of the National Assembly rubber stamped the endorsement. They were all silent on Shettima.

Discerning ones in the hall heard what the endorsers did not say: APC may not repeat the Tinubu-Shettima ticket in the next electoral context. But they kept the message to their chests.

The ex Borno governor sat glued to his seat for the entire duration of the event. He endured the storm, maintaining his sangfroid, or a semblance of it. He must have felt naked but he deadpanned, betraying no emotions. A similar scenario played out in Gombe on June 15. APC stakeholders in the Northeast, at a public event, also endorsed Tinubu without a word about Shettima. The event turned violent. Some party leaders, including Chairman Ganduje, were spirited out of the venue by security personnel. They escaped being lynched by irate pro Shettima youths by the skin of their teeth.

Shettima’s Perceived Sins

Inside sources in the presidency and APC circles, listed a number of “sins” against the vice president. They cited his handling of the controversial tax reform bills that his boss forwarded to the National Assembly last October. According to multiple sources who pleaded anonymity, the president and the APC leadership were scadalised by the way and manner Shettima handled the matter.

Recall that the National Economic Council (NEC), which the vice president chairs, openly opposed the bills. The NEC pressed it further by advising the president to withdraw the bills from the National Assembly to allow for broader consultation with key stakeholders.

Membership of NEC is drawn from the 36 state governors, the Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and other co-opted officials. It’s the statutory responsibility of NEC to advise the president on economic matters. It is also saddled with the responsibility of formulating and implementing policies for achieving the country’s economic goals. It was obvious NEC was not consulted by the drafters of the tax bills.
So it was within the purview of NEC to advise the president on economic matters, as it did with the tax bills. However, NEC’s advisory on the tax bills was said to have got some dander up. Also, among the loudest voices against the bill, was the Borno State Governor, Babagana Zulum, who is a protégé of the vice president.
The president and his party were said to have viewed Shettima’s NEC and Zulum’s open criticism of the bills an act of disloyalty, considering their positions in the administration. Tinubu and the APC were said to have envisaged a collective responsibility regarding the bills. More galling to the President, one of the sources said, was Zulum’s declaration at the time, that only Lagos State stood to benefit from the tax bills if passed, as proposed by the presidential committee on fiscal policy and tax reforms. The bills were eventually passed with some amendment, following the intervention of the Nigeria Governors Forum.
“Everybody knows the relationship that exists between Shettima and Governor Zulum. The same relationship exists between President Tinubu and Governor Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State. In the eyes of the public, some actions of the Lagos governor could be rightly or wrongly linked to the president, just as some actions of the Borno governor might be linked to Shettima, rightly or wrongly. You may draw your conclusions from that,” another source said.
The source, however, attempted to dismiss reports on the simmering disagreement between the two leaders, saying that the fact that the vice president was not named as a potential running mate to the president in 2027 at recent political events, should not be construed as a rejection of him.

“We are in 2025 and 2027 is still two years away. In a political environment like ours, every gossip is taken as fact and there is nothing anybody can do about it. Those in doubt of the existing cordial relationship between the president and the vice president should save their breath. Nothing has changed,” the source said. But observers of Aso Rock politics insist that all is not well with between the president and his deputy. They cited the president’s refusal to relinquish power to the vice president in acting capacity during any of his frequent foreign trips. They observed further, how the president has been returning to the country before the expiration of the 21-day deadline within which presidential power could automatically be transferred temporarily to his deputy as dictated by Section 145 of the Nigerian Constitution.

Section 145(1) says: “The President transmits a written declaration to the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the House when he is going on vacation or is unable to discharge the functions of his office.”
Section 145(2) states:
“If the President does not transmit the declaration within 21 days, the National Assembly can pass a resolution by a simple majority in each House, mandating the Vice President to act as President.”
But intentionally or unintentionally, the president had returned to the country before the 21-day deadline each time he traveled outside the country, even if he had to undertake the journey again a few days after his return.

It’s apparent the vice president is fully aware of the gathering storm that is threatening to dim the light in his career path.
Last Saturday, the veiled was yanked off an internal crisis the APC leadership has been struggling to paper over. In an encounter with party chair Ganduje in Uyo, the Akwa Ibom State capital, Shettima lent credence to the widespread reports on his deteriorating relationship with the APC leadership.

Shettima, while being received by dignitaries at the Uyo airport, shunned a handshake from Ganduje who was waiting for his turn to shake hands with the visiting vice president.
It was an event organised to officially welcome Governor Umo Eno who defected to the ruling party from the PDP a few weeks ago. After shaking hands with Eno and the President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio, Shettima was seen in a viral video avoiding a handshake with Ganduje who stood next to Akpabio. Instead, he stretched his hand past the front row where Ganduje stood, and extended a handshake to other dignitaries in the back row. The message was not lost to the party chairman and other party chieftains at the event. He must have considered Ganduje as one of the forces behind the political accident waiting to throw him off the 2027 presidential train.

Search For Shettima’s Replacement Begins

Insiders in the APC have confirmed an ongoing search for a replacement for Shettima. Among those being touted include the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu; Yobe State Governor, Mala Mai Buni; and his Gombe State counterpart, Inuwa Yahaya.

Others listed are a former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Digara; Deputy President of the Senate, Barau Jibrin; and incumbent Speaker of the House of Representatives, Tajudeen Abbas. However, the president and the APC leadership are said to be looking for a replacement from the Northeast zone where Shettima comes from. This, they are said to have reasoned, is with a view to retaining the present zoning arrangement for elective political offices.

Ribadu, Buni, Yahaya and Dogara are from the Northeast states of Adamawa, Yobe, Gombe and Bauchi respectively.
On the other hand, Abbas and Jibrin are from the Northwest. While the former is from Kaduna, the latter hailed from Kano. In the present arrangement, the APC chairman, the Speaker and the Deputy President of the Senate are all from the Northwest. Apart from the vice presidential seat, the Northeast does not hold any other significant elective office in the present arrangement. Party sources however, maintain that a choice will be made based on the assessment of the track records of electability and performance of each of the listed individuals allegedly being considered for the slot.

What Next For Shettima Post 2027?

Analysts have described the uncertainties over the vice president’s fate as part of the visiccitudes associated with partisan politics. Shettima was a senator representing Borno Central district before he was picked as Tinubu’s running mate for the 2023 election. Before then, he was a two-term governor of Borno State from 2007 to 2015 on the platform of the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). He became a member of the APC when the ANPP went into a coalition with four other parties to form the APC in 2013. His political career would be truncated abruptly if he is eventually dropped from the ruling party’s joint presidential ticket as is being speculated. On the other hand, he would have been eligible for re-election for as many times as he might wish to contest elections if he had remained in the Senate. Having served as vice president, it would be considered a demotion for him to seek for any other office in future, apart from that of the president. Pundits however, say it’s too early in the day for anyone to draw conclusions regarding the fate of the embattled vice president. According to them, while 2027 might be two years away, a single day could be long enough for the table to turn. It’s not over, until it’s over, as the popular saying goes. Will Shettima escape the looming political guillotine? Only time will tell.

2027: Why Tinubu May Not Run With Shettima is first published on The Whistler Newspaper